Long-Term Aerosol Trends and Their Association with Precipitation Variability in Southern Europe
Keywords:
Aerosols, precipitation variability, Random Forest, Southern Europe, climate trendsAbstract
Using MERRA-2 reanalysis (0.5°, monthly, 1980–2022, ~25,000 grid-time samples) and station precipitation data (412 stations), this study quantifies long-term aerosol–precipitation relationships. A Random Forest regression model (1,000 trees) captures nonlinear dependencies between aerosol optical depth and precipitation variability. Sulfate aerosol concentrations decrease by 32% over the study period, while interannual precipitation variability increases by 11–17%. The model explains 44% of precipitation variance (RMSE = 0.38 mm/day). Wavelet coherence analysis reveals significant coupling at 8–16 year timescales. Results suggest that aerosol reductions modify cloud microphysics and regional hydrological variability.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Lukas Meier, Anna Keller, Sophie Baumann
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